Dwarkesh Podcast
Dwarkesh Podcast
Will scaling work? [Narration]
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Will scaling work? [Narration]

Data bottlenecks, generalization benchmarks, primate evolution, intelligence as compression, world modelers, and other considerations
Dwarkesh Patel
Jan 19, 2024
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This is a narration of my blog post, Will scaling work?.

You read the full post here: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future posts and episodes.

Blog

Will scaling work?

Dwarkesh Patel
·
December 26, 2023
Will scaling work?

When should we expect AGI? If we can keep scaling LLMs++ (and get better and more general performance as a result), then there’s reason to expect powerful AIs by 2040 (or much sooner) which can automate most cognitive labor and speed up further AI progress. However, if scaling doesn’t work, then the path to AGI seems much longer and more intractable, fo…

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